An Invite - For You- to Subscribe-Free-to my New NL on Substack!

BREAKING: Introducing my “Vision2030 Portfolio”!

Author

Patrick Oconnell
March 15, 2026

I am doing a copy and paste of my supplemental issue to my March 2026 main isue- to let you know you are invited to subscribe- i is - of coures free:

Her is a sampl of my latest (supplmental) issue for my “Stock-Trend-Forecast NL”- - But first- the URL that you can use to subscribe - today! -

If you’re looking for clear, actionable stock and ETF trend insights, don’t miss my new Stock‑Trend‑Forecast NL. I’m tracking 3 ETFs + 5 stocks with real potential—and I’m sharing my actual ROI straight from my Fidelity Roth account. No hype, no noise, just the trends I’m following and why. The March 2026  Issue  (031526 Supplement) - is live now, and it’s free to subscribe. Jump in here:

Featured:

Ck out my March “Stock-Trend-Forecast NL” - 0631526 Supplement-Breaking NOW:

The Stock-Trend-Forecast NL- Are We In DEFCON 3?

The sample is below— More great info to come in the upcoming weeks, for sure!!!

Stock-Trend-Forecast-NL

March 2026 Issue (Published: 02/28/2026)

· BREAKING: Introducing my “Vision2030 Portfolio”!

· Latest Updates on my ETF and Stock Portfolio –

· Displaying ROI Percent Returns T0-Date – For Each One

Breaking:

If you’re looking for clear, actionable stock and ETF trend insights, don’t miss my new Stock‑Trend‑Forecast NL. I’m tracking 3 ETFs + 5 stocks with real potential—and I’m sharing my actual ROI straight from my Fidelity Roth account. No hype, no noise, just the trends I’m following and why. The March 2026 Issue is live now, and it’s free to subscribe. Jump in here:
👉 https://open.substack.com/pub/patrickoconnell748089/p/stock-trend-forecast-nl-cad?r=dwy08&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true

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Stock-Trend-Forecast-NL

March 2026- Supplement- Issue (Published: 03/15/2026)

· BREAKING: Introducing my “Vision2030 Portfolio”!

· Latest Updates on my ETF and Stock Portfolio –

· Displaying ROI Percent Returns T0-Date – For Each One

Welcome to my – March 2026 Stock-Trend-Forecast NL Supplement issue dated: 03/15/2026 Forecast Newsletter!

Introduction:

I track 3 ETFs and 5 stocks that IMHO offer stellar opportunities for capital appreciation- BUT- for full disclosure- This newsletter is to be considered “entertainment” as I am not an investment advisor - nor am I a registered financial advisor - I am simply sharing my own journey in buying these ETFs and stocks, and sharing with my subscribers the ROI to-date (since date of purchase) as I record in my Fidelity Brokerage Roth account!

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FULL DISCLOSURE:

I give credit – where credit is due!

I have invited the newsletter editors/publishers - that I have used to get my own investment ideas - to permit me to grant them a pro bono subscription to my own Substack “Stock-Trend-Forecast” NL -

This is my way of expressing my gratitude and appreciation to them for inspiring me to further research some of their stock recommendation (that I gathered through my own pro bono subscription to their newsletters.

My primary motivation to launch my “Stock-Trend My -Forecast” NL was inspired by The Prompt Guy’s 01/17/2026 newsletter – published on

– in which he was most considerate to all of “the rest of us” in providing actionable information on “The Tech Prompt That Works” in conducting research using AI in clarifying and confirming - the future prospects of positive (or negative?) growth (e.g., the probability / prospect – or likelyhood) concerning a tech stock of your choice.

In other words, the response of the AI Prompt- in theory at least – may (or may not- depending on a number of variables that you would incorporate in the prompt) - would (hopefully) give you the actionable information you are seeking, as to whether to purchase (or not) the tech stock that you are interested in at the moment.

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FULL DISCLOSURE NOTICE – Very Important for you to read:

BTW – I am not an investment advisor. None of the information that I share in my” Stock-Trend-Forecast” NL is to be considered investment advice. You should consider all of the information in my NL to be for entertainment purposes only!

Any stock or ETF purchase you make is – always – at your own risk!

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FYI:

The Stock Trend – Forecast NL is monthly –

with weekly supplements published- on an as-needed basis.

It is free – but does have a paywall.

Readers that want to subscribe may do so at $10 USD / month or $100 USD/year.

////////// Breaking: as of 03/15/2026 ///////////

· According to Porter Stansberry- he believes that the US is now at ( a financial level? – or a military level?- unclear to me- Patrick) - DEFCON 3 - (1 is the lowest- 5 is the highest level – Watch the Middle East to see when and if the DEFCON goes to 2 or 1!)

· The AI says this: “The official DEFCON level of the U.S. military is classified, but some independent analysts estimate it is at DEFCON 3 due to current international tensions. This indicates a heightened state of alert above normal peacetime readiness, though not necessarily an immediate, full-scale nuclear crisis. “

I am sharing the following information as of today – 03/15/2026 – as I think you may find he following information actionable, as the unfolding Middle East conflict appears to be affecting the entire global economy at an ever-increasing pace:

Not investment advice – for entrainment only – as I am not an investment advisor- Patrick OConnell, editor:

Dateline: 03/15/2026 –

Giving credit where credit is due – I have used Notebook LM to 1 = Summarize Porter Stansberry’s article contained in his 03/03/122026 NL, “ The Daily Journal”, as follows:

The AI that I used - , Notebook LM -- provided the following summary of Porter Stansberry’s article:

Porter Stansberry presents a dire financial forecast that compares current economic instabilities to the stagflationary crisis of the 1970s.

He utilizes a military readiness scale [author: DEFCON 1 thru 5 ] - to argue that a looming collapse of the credit market, particularly within the massive private credit sector, poses a greater threat than the 2008 subprime mortgage bubble.

Global stability is further endangered by geopolitical chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz, where potential energy disruptions could spark a massive spike in inflation while growth simultaneously stalls.

The narrative highlights a shattering of the American economy characterized by record consumer debt, falling property values, and a central bank that is powerless to intervene due to rising commodity costs.

To survive this predicted eighteen-month bear market, the source suggests a defensive investment strategy focused on real assets, energy, and companies with significant pricing power.

Ultimately, the passage warns that the world is entering a volatile era of high interest rates and structural economic shifts that will permanently alter the financial landscape.

I than asked the AI to determine – in its research of two URLs I provided (barchart.com and everyticker.com) – what allocation percentages ( in funds) should be allocated to each of the 10 stocks that Porter Stansberry cites as potential equities to invest in- given my initial funding of (what I call) the “Vision 2030 Portfolio”:

The AI (NotebookLM) responded to my prompt:

As an equities market analyst monitoring the current “DEFCON III” financial environment, I have revised the Vision 2030 Portfolio allocation. This recommendation incorporates the strategic directives from Porter Stansberry’s March 13, 2026, Daily Journal and utilizes the fundamental/technical frameworks typically found on platforms like EveryTicker and Barchart to optimize your entry points.

The “Grist-Mill” Bear Market: Why This Portfolio?

Porter Stansberry warns that we are entering a 12-to-18-month stagflationary bust. Unlike the quick COVID crash, this is a “grist-mill” market where rallies are sold and indexes grind lower due to three converging shocks:

  1. Energy Shock: The potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz puts 20% of global oil and a double-digit percentage of LNG at risk.

  2. Credit Shock: The $1.7T to $2.0T private credit market is “shattering,” with default rates potentially hitting 18% to 20%.

  3. Growth Shock: Real GDP has plummeted from 4% to 1.4% in a single quarter.

In this environment, “duration-sensitive growth stocks” and traditional fixed income will likely suffer. This portfolio is designed to prioritize pricing power, real asset ownership, and dominant market moats to withstand a scenario where the S&P 500 could fall 50%.

Vision 2030 Portfolio Allocation & Funding Schedule

Based on the requirement to split equity exposure into three equal “pillars,” I have allocated the $2,000 initial capital and the $8,000 target capital accordingly.

Pillar 1: Energy & Real Assets (33.3% Allocation)

Focus: Profiting from structurally higher commodity prices and supply chokepoints.

Ticker…….CompanyAllocation %…Initial ($2k)…Target ($8k)…Analyst Note (Evidence)

XOM……….ExxonMobil………………..12.0%………………$240($960……High-quality integrated ………………………………………………………………………………………..giant; best positioned for $100+ oil.

CF……….CF Industries…………………….9.3%$186………….$744………….Essential materials; ………………………………………………………fertilizer supply is tied directly to energy chokepoints.

FNVFranco-Nevada…………………………….6.0%$120……….$480………..High-quality gold ……………………………………………………..royalty/miner; provides a hedge against credit collapse.

AEMAgnico Eagle…………………………………..6.0%$120……..$480……….Solid-performing miner …………………………………………………………………………………………with strong operational history.

Pillar 2: “Lindy” Pricing Power (33.3% Allocation)

Focus: High ROE and the ability to raise prices without losing volume.

Ticke……rCompany…….Allocation %Initial ($2kTarget ….($8k)….Analyst Note ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………(Evidence)

KOCoca-Cola……………………16.65%.........$333…….$1,332…………….Long-lived business; …………………………………………………………“clean balance sheet” essential for credit shocks.

HSYHershey………………..…….16.65%..........$333….$1,332………....Demonstrated ability to ……………………………………………………………………….grow nominal earnings through inflation.

Pillar 3: High-Moat Tech (33.3% Allocation)

Focus: Long-term leaders to be accumulated during market drawdowns.

Ticker…Company…Allocation %..Initial ($2k)…Target ($8k)Analyst Note (Evidence)

NVDANvidia……….….10.0%.......……...$200……………$800…………Massive moat; leading the ……………………………………………………………………………………………….“post-storm” market recovery.

GOOGAlphabet…..……..8.3%..............$166………..…..$664…….Dominant search/AI moat; …………………………………………………………………………………………….high cash levels provide safety.

TSMTaiwan Semi………7.5%.............$150………….……$600……Critical infrastructure for ……………………………………………………………………………….global tech; deep value in drawdowns.

CRMSalesforce……………7.5%.............$150…….…..…….$600….High-moat software; resilient ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….earnings growth.

The AI (NoteboolLM) - Analyst Implementation Strategy

The AI shares this info for you to review ( remember – NOT investment advice!!!):

  1. Fundamental Backing (Evidence from External Data): Using general market data typically found on Barchart and EveryTicker (which is outside the provided source text), I recommend XOM and CF as your primary “risk-on” hedges for the energy shock. Their cash flow yields historically improve when energy supply is constrained. For the “Lindy” stocks, focus on their Return on Equity (ROE); the sources emphasize that high ROE companies with clean balance sheets are the few that can “compound” through a stagflationary “grist-mill”.

  1. The “Rotate-In” Method: The sources explicitly state that high-moat tech (NVDA, GOOG, etc.) will be volatile and may sell off “massively” in a 50% index drawdown. As you increase your capital from $2,000 to $8,000, you should use the additional $6,000 to “buy the dips” in the Tech pillar.

  1. Dividend Reinvestment: In a market where capital gains may be scarce for 12–18 months, the dividends from KO, HSY, and XOM should be automatically reinvested to increase your share count while prices are depressed.

This allocation provides a balance between defensive pricing power and offensive commodity exposure, ensuring your portfolio remains “solid-performing” even if the broader credit markets “shatter”.

Let me know what you think of the “Vision2030 Portfolio” in your comments --- Patrick Oconnell. Editor-

/////////////////------ Previously published on 02/20/2026 : /////////////////////

The Main Event:

As of 02/20/2026:

My highest ETF ROI is: Plus 162%

My highest Stock ROI is: Plus 12%

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My track record as of today’s Newsletter date follows:

FULL DISCLOSURE:

All quotes and per cent gain or loss percentages are also rounded numbers!!!

ETF Dte Purchased Curr Price Total % Gain(ROI)

GDX Various Dtes………………$116……………Plus 149%

PSLV Various Dtes………………$31………..……Plus 162%

PHYS Various Dtes………………$40………….…. Plus 35%

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STOCK Dte Purchased Curr Price…Total % Gain (ROI)

ACLS 02/02/2026………………..$83…………….Minus 8%

Axelis Technologies

ILMN 02/06/2026 ……………….$134……………Minus 6%

STOCK Dte Purchased Curr Price…Total % Gain (ROI)

Ilumina Inc

NUVB 02/02/2026 ………………..$6………………. Plus 3.22%

Nuvation Bio Inc

RDW Varies…………………………$9…………….…Plus 8%

Redwire CorpXZO

XZO 02/02/2026 ………………….$17…………….Minus 19%

Exzeo Group Inc

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Following information is updated - once a month - upon publication of each month’s first issue of The Stock-Trend-Forecasrt- NL:

My Forecast for the Equity Market for February 2026 – based on my proprietary VVIX – SPY Correlation- Variance Algo:

Not Investment Advice – For Entertainment ONLY!!!

I am NOT an investment advisor!

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My forecast for the S&P500 – for March 2026 - (NOT investment advice- for entertainment ONLY!):

As of 02/27/2026:

The VVIX was: 10817

A decline in VVIX - month-over-month.

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The S&P500 (SPY) was 685.32

A decline in the SPY index – month-over-month.

The Takeaway:

Since the VVIX-SPY Correlation-Variance Algo shows that both the VVIX and the SPY are in a Bearish trend, month-over-month – I forecast a Bearish trend for march 2026.

NOT investment advice – for entertainment only!!!

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Each month, I feature one of he stocks that I have picked to potentially undergo stellar capital appreciation (no guarantee of course!) in the coming months.

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The Main Event -

The featured stock for this month is: ACLS ( Axcwkis Technologies) –

I share the information which the AI, “NotebookLM” offered me – based on the sources that I provide it within my prompt(s).

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For your entertainment, here is the transcript of the interaction I had with NotebookLM concerning the future growth prospects for ACLS (aka: profitability) over the next few months –

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Dateline: 02/08/2026 - Information I gathered on Barchart.com – using NotebookLM as my AI – Information is not verified as being correct – Consider this info as entertainment – and NOT actionable investment advice:

The AI Responded to my Prompt as follows:

As a tech platform strategist, I have synthesized the following analysis based on the news snippets provided in our conversation history and the provided source material.

Note: The official source material provided contains only a website URL. Therefore, the details regarding the Axcelis (ACLS) and Veeco (VECO) merger, as well as the Purion H6 launch, are drawn from our conversation history. The competitive analysis of Applied Materials and Lam Research is based on information from outside these sources, which I have included to provide the strategic depth you requested.

Summary of Strategic Predictions (Next 6–12 Months)

Based on the recent approval of the Axcelis-Veeco merger and the unveiling of the Purion H6 ion implanter, the combined entity is likely to make the following moves:

  1. Unified “Intelligent” Software Integration (High Probability): The company will likely announce a software platform that integrates data from both Axcelis ion implantation and Veeco laser annealing tools. The goal is to offer a “closed-loop” solution where data from one process step informs the settings of the next to improve semiconductor yield.

  2. Strategic Tool Bundling (Medium Probability): To secure its position in Tier 1 foundries, the company will likely offer aggressive pricing or service packages for customers who purchase the new Purion H6 alongside Veeco’s processing equipment. This is a move to maximize “wallet share” within a single fab.

  3. Legacy Asset “Digital Twin” Upgrades (Low-Medium Probability): To maintain revenue from its existing install base, Axcelis may release software-driven “intelligent” upgrades for older Purion models, extending their life in mature nodes (like power and automotive chips) while increasing high-margin service revenue.

Competitive Risk Analysis: Applied Materials (AMAT) & Lam Research (LRCX)

Note: The following information is not contained in your sources and should be independently verified.

While the merger with Veeco provides Axcelis with much-needed scale, it faces significant competitive risks from the “Goliaths” of the Wafer Fab Equipment (WFE) market: Applied Materials (AMAT) and Lam Research (LRCX).

1. The “Platform” Advantage

  • The Risk: AMAT and LRCX do not just sell tools; they sell Integrated Materials Solutions. They have the breadth to manage almost every step of the semiconductor manufacturing process.

  • The Tension: Axcelis is a “point solution” specialist (ion implantation). Even with Veeco’s annealing and wet processing, they are a “mini-platform.” AMAT can offer a customer a “total fab” discount or integration level that Axcelis cannot match. If a customer like TSMC can get a more seamless data flow by staying within the AMAT ecosystem, the “best-of-breed” advantage of the Purion H6 may be neutralized.

2. R&D Resource Disparity

  • The Risk: The combined R&D budget of Axcelis and Veeco is still a small fraction of what AMAT or Lam Research spends annually.

  • The Tension: As the industry moves toward Gate-All-Around (GAA) transistors and High-NA EUV lithography, the technical complexity grows exponentially. AMAT and Lam can afford to place multiple “bets” on emerging technologies. Axcelis is “all-in” on its Purion architecture. If the market shifts toward a manufacturing technique that reduces the need for traditional ion implantation, Axcelis has fewer fallback options than its larger rivals.

3. Defense of “Critical” Process Steps

  • The Risk: Lam Research is the dominant force in Etch and Deposition, which are the most critical steps for 3D NAND and advanced logic.

  • The Tension: Lam has been increasingly moving into adjacent spaces to protect its core. If Lam or AMAT perceives the Axcelis-Veeco merger as a threat to their dominance in the “thermal processing” or “annealing” space, they can leverage their deep relationships with fab procurement departments to effectively “box out” Axcelis by bundling their indispensable etch/dep tools with their own annealing solutions.

Strategic Conclusion

The Axcelis-Veeco merger is a defensive consolidation designed to reach the “minimum viable scale” required to compete in the next generation of chipmaking. However, their primary risk is not just building a better tool (like the Purion H6), but surviving the ecosystem lock-in practiced by AMAT and Lam Research.