My S&P500 Weekly Trend Forecast NL - 07/25/2025

Author

Patrick Oconnell
July 25, 2025

My S&P500 Weekly Trend Forecast NL - 07/25/2025

My proprietary market algo forecasts the following trends, Risk on, or Risk off, for the upcoming trading week ending on 08/01/2025:

For the trading week -as of the market close on Friday, 07/25/2025 - The SPY(SPDR - S&P500 ETF), - Increased by 9.52 – compared to the market close on 07/18/2025!

What do YOU think? Will the Fed CONTINUE TO PUMP money into the equity markets next week? Duh!

Be Aware – Be Awesome!

That being said - you MUST be aware and- as the saying goes “Be as wise as a Serpent”

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NOT Investment advice:

For the upcoming trading week, ending on 08/01/2025 - my proprietary algo forecasts the following potential trend for each of the following metrics – either Bullish or Bearish:

VIX index: This index has turned slightly Bullish for the upcoming trading week!

VVIX index – The VVIX has turned moderately Bullish, as well - for the upcoming trading week!

Remember this - IMHO the markets ARE being manipulated - as in “rigged” -

You DID know that, of course!

What can possibly go wrong?

Full Disclosure- NOT Investment Advice!

Note: I STILL remain Bullish in the market - for the VERY LONG TERM!!!

Swing traders and day traders – Take Note of This!

West Texas Intermediate – Crude Oil: This one remains moderately Bullish for the week ahead, even though it dipped a bit at the end of (week-over-week) trading on 07/25/2025!

QQQ: This one remains significantly Bullish for the upcoming trading week!

Copper: Thanks to the Trump regime’s massive tariffs on Copper- this metal yet again - moved up on a week-over-week basis, remaining MASSIVELY BULLISH!

Is Copper the canary in the coal mine- so to speak – signalling massive hyper inflation is imminent? Stay tuned here – to find out!

Stay tuned to see how the next trading week plays out!

My comments and analyses of these indices are NEVER to be considered investment advice!!!

A reminder – None of this is investment advice – as I am not an investment advisor! Consider it “entertainment” information!

Trade at your own risk.

Do your own due diligence!

· * Welcome to yet another week in which the Bulls - IMHO – appear to remain in control!

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The Fed’s Plunge Protection Team, according to Greg Mannarino, will do anything to hype-pump the markets and ensure that - in the longer term - the Bulls remain in control—no matter the cost—no matter what it takes!

Always remember -

IMHO - the Debt Market will primarily be the canary in the coal mine, so to speak, as regards the direction of the equity markets—IMHO, of course—NOT investment advice!

The Takeaway:

My SPY-VIX Correlation Variation metric - confirms - at least from a purely technical point of view (notwithstanding “Fed manipulation” monkey business) – that this coming week’s trend – at least according to this metric – IMHO – is moderately Bullish.

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Of course - keep in mind - Volatility is still very much with us!

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Please note:

Concerning my “VIX - SPY correlation-variance ” metric:

IF the VIX is trending DOWN. And the SPY is trending UP, for the most recent week of trading…then and only then will our VIX, SPY correlation-variance algo indicate a potential Risk-on, (Bullish) trend,for the upcoming week,…

This indication of a potential Bullish trend, however, typically happens - when the Fed is inclined to support the market.

Be VERY aware - of course - at all times - concerning when the rug pull comes!

As always - IMHO - Central Bankers rule the planet! NOT the political leadership of the various so-called nation-states of the earth! - Just my opinion- of course!- Patrick

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Be sure to follow Greg Mannarino for ongoing fluctuations in the market (Google “Greory Mannarino” on the YouTube website - to get his YT link!.

NOT investment advice, of course! I am not an investment advisor!

The Takeaway - AS the US economy (Main Street) continues to fall - the US stock markets will continue to rise (and also decline – from time to time - of course) -

IMHO - food, energy, and commodity prices will potentially HYPERINFLATE!

Just my opinion, of course!

Duh!

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REMINDER:

Daniel Riley –Mr.TopStep:

https://mrtopstep.com

provides daily updates on the markets:

His website & free email newsletter are a MUST!!! —Patrick

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Below - I shall share my favorite seven High Yield ETF’s that I am buying- for now -Each of them yields between approximately 70%- and MORE - per annum-

NOT investment advice -

Do your own Due Diligence!

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Tell your friends to subscribe now- to see what ETF’s are my favorites!

I prefer to invest in these things - in lieu of doing day or swing trades. Typically- I prefer a buy and hold strategy. Sometimes I sell them when they fail to “deliver” or do a reverse split- from which they struggle to recover from! You may want to check out this JOMO (Joy of Missing Out)strategy - or not- It’s your call!

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NOTE:

All of my Fidelity retirement brokerage account data is current as of the date shown below, in the section entitled “The Portfolio” - –

I am sharing with you – my current Joy of Missing Out (JOMO) favorite High Yield ETFs ( and VERY HIGH RISK) - that I am regularly investing in – NOT investment advice –

I am NOT an investment advisor –

These are simply my favorite ETFs that feature (variable- as in they go up and DOWN!) high yields.

With a high ROI- a high risk of loss is “what you get’!

You can do your own Due Diligence at these websites:

https://dividendinvestor.com

https://defianceetfs.com

https://yieldmaxetfs.com

https://barchart.com

https://finviz.com

FULL DISCLOSURE -

I share information concerning the annual dividend returns on some ETFs that pay on a monthly basis. -

My favorites- which I disclose in detail - currently yield between 80% - 100% - and more on an annual ROI basis!

High Risk - High Returns! -

NOT Investment Advice! -

I am NOT an investment advisor!!! - Patrick OConnell

Don’t miss a single issue of the Newletter!

Subscribe and ALWAYS get my complete newsletter- with my breaking monthly update on the status of this High Yield - High Risk Portfolio of my favorite ETFs - NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE - I am NOT an investment advisor.

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Here is the data that I extracted from my Fidelity retirement brokerage account:

For paid subscribers:

The following information, which I call “The Portfolio” - is “typically - IN FULL - displayed” - ONLY for Paid Subscribers to The Market Algo Newsletter!

Please be sure – to read the FULL DISCLOSURE notice at the very top of every issue of The Market Algo Newsletter (NL)!

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IMPORTANT FOR YOU TO NOTE –

Here is the data for my 7 CURRENT / FAVORITE HOLDINGS (all pay dividends monthly – except ULTY- which pays weekly -

- that I extracted from my:

Fidelity IRA retirement brokerage account:

NOTE – FYI - The inverse of the following 2 ETFs is shown in (parentheses) – CONY (FIAT) and NVDY (CRSH)

Full Disclosure - All 7 ETFs pay on a monthly basis except ULTY – which pays weekly:

Be a paid subscriber and view my entire portfolio of my favorite 7 ETFs, to include their current ROI% and Fidelity’s estimated Annual ROI in USD.

FYI – On 03/21/2025 – I sold six of these ETFs – that I previously owned: NFLY – QQQY – YBIT – BITO – SQY - and IWMY.

I felt I needed some more impactful annual ROI – So I bought TSLY with the proceeds from these ETFs that I sold!

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“The Portfolio” - All the following data - as displayed in my Fidelity ROTH-IRA Acct –

is current as of 07/25/2025 –

Symbol ROI% Est Ann Income

CONY……………………….134%......................... $23752

CRSH………………………..144…………………………..9509

FIAT…………….……………364………………………… 9746

MSTY…………...…………..130………………..………20551

NVDY…………….….………..82…………………..……..7144

TSLY……………………………132…………………..……..8679

ULTY…………….…………….122…………………..………9039

NOTE:

· ULTY pays on a weekly basis!

· The others pay once a month!

· VERY IMPORTANT 072525 Update - on what I buy every month:

I now buy MSTY-CONY-NVDY-TSLY – IN LIEU OF this set of 4 ETF’s (MSTY-CRSH-NVDY-FIAT) –

Since NVDY is currently yielding less than 90% Annual ROI – I shall buy more CONY than NVDY each month, moving forward.

I plan to buy more shares of MSTY – than TSLY as well, as I think MSTY has a solid future – and IMHO appears able to maintin high yields each month on a more or less consistent basis.

FYI - I buy in various weeks (1st -2nd -3rd -4th week-- - - - - - NOT necessarily on the same day of each week for each month though -

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VERY IMPORTANT INFORMATION FOR ALL MY SUBSCRIBERS -

My trading strategy – pertaining to which 4 ETFs I buy BEFORE the “next” ETF’s Ex-Dividend date -of each month- is detailed below –

A Reminder for you guys and girls - (Remember the ex-dividend date- for UTLY – is WEEKLY!!! - NOT monthly!)

Full Disclosure –

Important Updates:

· 02/28/2025 MAJOR UPDATE: FYI – Each of these Hi Yield – VERY HIGH RISK ETFs pay their dividends – on a MONTHLY BASIS (except for UTLY -which pays on a weekly basis)! – So, as of 02/28/2025 - and moving forward – I plan to implement the following strategy for my ROTH-IRA account:

· 06/06/2025 --VERY IMPORTANT ***UPDATE-

·

· As of June 2025- the following strategy- buying a specific Friday - on the Friday I previously used - is now obsolete- PLEASE refer to the website identified below (It is within the PAYWALL – SUBSCRIBE NOW – to get the URL an other important info my my monthly strategy in buying these ETFs!

· - for the correct Ex-Divided Dates (you need to buy the “next” ETF BEFORE the applicable “Ex-Dividend” date!!! - So that way you will know WHEN to buy the “next” ETF in the sequence- ALWAYS buy BEFORE the “next” ETF’s Ex-Dividend date- ALWAYS!!!

· Email me if you have questions- and oh yes-

Very Important Information for ALL my subscribers -

Go To THIS URL To GET INFO ON WHEN I BUY MY ETFs EACH MONTH - ·

· Here is the URL for you to get this ex-dividend date info on the updated “strategy” when to buy the “next” ETF:- to use in my updated strategy to get monthly income (and weekly - in the case of UTLY):

·

https://marketchameleon.com

**** NOTE- I get this info FREE – by asking the Google Search Engine what the Ex-dividend date is going to be - for- example MSTY (or whatever ETF I am interested in)!

One of the options is to go to

https://marketchameleon.com

I did NOT use their limited free trial- I just get the info I need for FREE by using Google! This may be a glitch- If anything changes I WILL let you guys and girls know ASAP

Instructions on using the info located at the Marketchameleon website -

https://marketchameleon.com

Easy 2 Use -

· You will need to input the symbol of the ETF - Then - when that ETF info appears- click on “Dividends” as the sub-category you will want to view.

· Everything is there: Ex-Dividend Dates - Payout Dates - An awesome website for tons of info on equities and ETFs, etc!

·

· Very Important note for you to read -

· On the specific day of each month when CONY and FIAT pay their dividends- I shall buy MSTY.

· On the specific day of each month – when MSTY pays out – I shall buy CRSH (CRUSH is the inverse ETF of TSLY).

· On the specific day of each month – when TSLY and CRSH pay their dividends – I shall buy NVDY.

· On the specific day of each month – when NVDY pays out – I shall buy CONY (I previously bought FIAT, the inverse ETF of CONY).

· My rationale follows – FYI - In the week that one of these ETFs pays out – I buy the ETF that will pay out in the next week. Sort of like reinvesting – but reinvesting in the ETF that pays out in the next week. Not sure how this will work out - but time will tell, no?

· Email or DM me to share your feedback on this strategy – Patrick

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My Due Diligence (DD) resource url links - FYI:

https://finance.yahoo.com

https://koyfin.com

https://americanbulls.com

https://stocktwits.com

https://barchart.com

https://macroaxis.com

https://armrreport.com/

https://finviz.com

https://themarketanalysts.com/

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